Grow Fragrance · Analytics

Forecast Reports

Approved analytical reports, published individually after review.

Forecasting & Purchasing

1 report

Holiday 2026 — Purchasing Performance Analysis

Interactive historical demand analysis for Vanilla Peppermint, Palo Santo, and Winter Hearth. Includes Proxy Lab for swappable format share exploration, daily demand curves with multi-year overlay, and unit estimator. 21/21 data checks verified.

2026-05-13 · D-20 · Holiday 2026 cycle · For Nikita

Model Validation

2 reports

✅

FM-01 Validation — Executive Report

Leadership-facing validation summary for the FM-01 forecast engine. Verdict, headline metrics, prioritized action plan, dollar impact.

2026-04-23 · VAL_FM01_executive

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FM-01 Validation — Technical Report

Full SR 11-7-grade validation: methodology, backtest, sensitivity analysis, residuals, calibration items, conformance against the model card.

2026-04-26 · VAL_FM01_technical

Research

2 reports

🧪

FM-01 Forecast Engine Diagnostic

Five-red-flag pre-deployment review of the Fall 2026 forecast engine — decay-cap asymmetry, MAPE instability, CI undercoverage, pooled-curve depth, growth-rate uncertainty.

2026-04-10 · Baseline characterization

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Diffuser Methodology Sensitivity Analysis

Three-approach comparison for the diffuser overlay: Overlay (additive), In-distribution (blended), Hybrid (50/50). Cost delta, elasticity sweep, and recommendation.

2026-04-27 · Fall 2026 cycle

Exploration

1 report

⚙️

Forecasting Engine — Interactive Walkthrough

Click-through tour of the FM-01 five-layer pipeline: seasonal index, blend, decay, growth, confidence interval. Inputs, outputs, and intermediate values exposed at each stage.

2026-04-10