Holiday 2026 — Purchasing Performance Forecasting Report Part 1: Historical Analysis

Holiday Season at a Glance

Holiday 2024 total

61,160

units sold

Holiday 2025 total

68,425

▲ +11.9%

Revenue 2024

$742K

Revenue 2025

$968K

▲ +30.5%

Shopify share 2025

74%

Amazon 24% · Faire 2%

Revenue grew faster than units (+30.5% vs +11.9%) because multiple fragrances added higher-priced 8oz Candle formats in 2025, lifting the average selling price per order.

Holiday Volume by Channel — 2024 vs 2025

Net Revenue

2026 Lineup — Prior Season Performance

Date window: November 1 – January 31 for both seasons. October-inclusive alternatives shown in brackets where they differ by more than 20 units.

Lineup Fragrance Volume — 2024 vs 2025

Fragrance	Holiday 2024	Holiday 2025	YoY	2026 Status	Key Point
Vanilla Peppermint	—	7,401 [Oct: 7,544]	New	Y2 returning	Launched Oct 17, 2025 — #3 fragrance in its first season
Palo Santo Pine	1,490	1,757	▲ +17.9%	Y3 — 5 formats new	Candle-only history. Non-candle formats launch fresh in 2026.
Winter Hearth	—	—	No history	New — Spray only	All figures are Holiday Hearth proxy. Supply-constrained by oil on hand.
Holiday Hearth Y1 proxy	5,276 [Oct: 5,397]	1,668 (Y2)	▼ −68.4%	Proxy only	HH declined sharply in Y2. Winter Hearth is a one-season, spray-only, oil-capped run.

Production Timing Guide — When Demand Arrives

Based on Vanilla Peppermint Holiday 2025 (the best available Holiday timing benchmark). Shows what percentage of the full season's demand arrives by each point in the season — critical for deciding initial stock levels and whether a mid-season replenishment is feasible.

Cumulative % of Season Demand by Week — VP Holiday 2025

Key Thresholds

Milestone	Spray	Candle	CF
Nov 14 (Wk 2)	35%	30%	32%
Nov 28 (Black Friday)	52%	48%	50%
Dec 5 (Wk 5)	65%	64%	66%
Dec 14 (mid-December)	85%	88%	85%
Dec 31	99%	99%	92%

Reorder window is essentially closed for raw materials. With 1–3 month raw material lead times, any replenishment ordered after Nov 1 won't arrive until February at the earliest — after the season closes. The only viable mid-season flex is finished goods production (1–3 day turnaround) if raw materials are already on hand. This makes the initial order the critical decision: it must cover the full season. CF has a slightly longer tail than Spray (92% vs 99% cumulative through Dec 31), suggesting a small amount of CF demand continues into January.

Carryover Inventory from Holiday 2025

Finished goods or raw materials still on hand from Holiday 2025. This reduces net-new orders for the same items in 2026.

Item	Qty on Hand	Relevance for 2026
Pine Forest 5oz Spray (finished)	528 units	Pine Forest not in 2026 Holiday lineup — sell through Faire or clearance channel before ordering new
VP Car Freshener packaging	75 bags	Packaging carry-in for VP 2026 CF — small but reduces packaging order
VP Car Freshener (finished)	22 units	Negligible; will likely clear before Holiday 2026

2oz Discovery Pack benchmark: Holiday 2025 Discovery Sets sold 768 units at ~$30 ASP ($23,201 revenue) — Shopify only. The Everyday Favorites set added 868 units ($25,759). Combined ~$49K revenue from 2oz packs in one season. Directly informs what to expect from VP and PS 2oz Spray format in Holiday 2026.

Vanilla Peppermint — Y2 Holiday 2026

Strong Y1 baseline. VP debuted as the #3 fragrance in its first Holiday season. The data is clean and reliable — the most solid anchor in the 2026 lineup.

Y1 total units

8,544

First season · Oct–Jan: 8,707

Y1 net revenue

$138.7K

Primary channel

Shopify

No Amazon in Y1

Top format

Spray

69% of Y1 volume

Y1 Volume by Format and Channel

Y1 Format Mix

Full Y1 Breakdown

Format	Channel	Units	Net Revenue	Avg Price
5oz Spray	Shopify	5,791	$81,372	$14.07
5oz Spray	Faire	138	$997	$7.55
Car Freshener	Shopify	1,411	$20,398	$14.45
Car Freshener	Faire	61	$531	$9.18
8oz Candle	Shopify	1,081	$34,138	$31.95
8oz Candle	Faire	62	$1,261	$22.04
Total		8,544	$138,697

No Amazon in Y1. VP was Shopify + Faire only. If Amazon is planned for 2026 (Y2), there is no baseline — treat as incremental and conservative.
2026 adds 2oz Spray and Diffuser. Neither has history. 2oz share needs Nikita's input; Diffuser will use fixed overlay (same as Fall 2026 — confirm quantity).

Palo Santo Pine — Y3 Holiday 2026 (5 Formats)

Proxy disclosure. Candle data (2024, 2025) is fully observed Palo Santo history. Spray, Car Freshener, 2oz Spray, and Diffuser format shares are estimated from proxy fragrances — not observed Palo Santo data. See the Proxy Lab tab to explore different proxy options.

Candle Y1 (2024)

1,490

candle only

Candle Y2 (2025)

1,757

▲ +17.9%

Revenue 2025

$45.8K

▲ +49% (ASP shift)

Amazon presence

None

Shopify + Faire only

Candle History — Observed Palo Santo Data

Revenue Growth — ASP Shift to 8oz

Why candle total grew +18% even though 6.5oz declined: The 8oz Candle was added in 2025 (728 units at $32.54 avg). The 6.5oz dropped from 1,490 to 969 (−35%), but the 8oz addition more than offset it. Revenue grew +49% because the 8oz sells for ~$32 vs ~$22 for the 6.5oz.

Format	Channel	Holiday 2024	Holiday 2025	Change	Avg Price 2025
6.5oz Candle	Shopify	1,432	969	▼ −32.3%	$22.07
6.5oz Candle	Faire	58	—	dropped
8oz Candle	Shopify	—	728	New 2025	$32.54
8oz Candle	Faire	—	60	New 2025	$21.08
Candle Total		1,490	1,757	▲ +17.9%

Non-candle format shares for 2026 are estimated from proxies. Go to the Proxy Lab tab to explore different proxy options and see how each one affects the estimated format split for Palo Santo. You can also enter a total unit projection and see the resulting units per format.

Winter Hearth — New Fragrance (Spray Only, Supply-Constrained)

All figures on this page are Holiday Hearth data — not Winter Hearth.

Winter Hearth is brand new — no sales history, no product record, no fragrance oil vendor in the system. The actual volume we can produce depends on how much oil is physically in the warehouse, not on any demand estimate. Before any ordering decision, Nikita needs to confirm: (1) how many lbs of Winter Hearth oil are on hand, and (2) whether a vendor has been established for future orders.

HH Y1 Spray — Shopify

3,144

Demand proxy for Winter Hearth

HH Y1 Spray — Amazon

834

Winter Hearth unlikely on Amazon Y1

Shopify ASP (Y1)

$12.43

HH Y2 decline

−68%

Winter Hearth is a one-season run

Holiday Hearth — Full History by Format and Channel

Spray-Only Extract (Winter Hearth Analog)

Complete Holiday Hearth Data — Nikita's Reference

Season	Format	Channel	Units	Net Revenue	Avg Price
Y1 — 2024	5oz Spray	Shopify	3,144	$38,894	$12.43
Y1 — 2024	5oz Spray	Amazon	834	$4,842	$5.78
Y1 — 2024	6.5oz Candle	Shopify	1,267	$26,417	$20.91
Y1 — 2024	6.5oz Candle	Faire	31	$432
Y1 Total			5,276	$70,585
Y2 — 2025	5oz Spray	Shopify	1,078	$14,743	$13.67
Y2 — 2025	5oz Spray	Faire	79	$573
Y2 — 2025	6.5oz Candle	Shopify	290	$6,365	$21.91
Y2 — 2025	8oz Candle	Shopify	182	$5,885	$32.77
Y2 — 2025	8oz Candle	Faire	39	$799
Y2 Total			1,668	$28,365	▼ −68.4%

How to use this for ordering: Shopify spray proxy is ~3,100 units. This is a demand estimate — the real ceiling is how much oil is on hand. If the oil allows fewer than 3,100 units, the oil caps production. If more, there is no analytical basis to produce above 3,100 units without additional proxy evidence.

Diffuser Planning — Analog Estimates

No diffuser sales history exists. Fall 2026 is the first season diffusers have run at Grow. This tab uses Car Freshener (CF) as the closest internal demand analog — it's a non-consumable fragrance delivery format with a comparable price point. All estimates here are structured guesses, not forecasts. Treat them as planning ranges, not purchase commitments.

Why Car Freshener is the Best Available Proxy

Like diffusers, Car Fresheners are a fragrance delivery format that customers choose alongside their primary spray or candle — not instead of it. They're impulse-adjacent, gift-friendly, and typically represent 10–25% of a fragrance's spray volume in Holiday seasons. A diffuser could plausibly follow a similar demand pattern.

CF:Spray Ratio — Across Grow's Holiday Catalogue

Each dot is one fragrance × season. The green band marks the 10–25% planning range — where most established fragrances land. This is the range we suggest applying to diffuser planning in the absence of actuals.

CF as % of Spray Volume — Holiday Seasons

When Does CF Demand Arrive? (Season Demand Shape)

Lines show cumulative CF units as a percentage of the full-season CF total — so you can compare demand timing regardless of absolute volume. Steeper early slope = front-loaded (strong launch). If diffusers follow a similar curve, most demand arrives in the first 4–5 weeks.

Car Freshener — Cumulative % of Season Total by Day

7-Day Rolling Average (daily CF units)

Key pattern: CF demand typically front-loads around the Black Friday window (Day 29) and fades quickly after mid-December. By Day 60 (Dec 31), most fragrances have collected 85–95% of their total CF season volume. If diffusers follow this shape, the majority of sell-through happens in the first 6 weeks — relevant for Nikita's reorder window timing.

Price Architecture — Where Diffuser Fits

Current Grow format ASPs (Holiday 2025, Shopify). Diffuser would likely land between Candle and Spray — a premium gift-table item. The green band marks the $24–$34 range typical for standalone fragrance diffusers at DTC brands.

Format ASPs — Holiday 2025 Shopify (avg net revenue per unit)

Scenario Calculator — Diffuser Unit Planning

Set your assumptions below. The calculator applies them to projected 2026 spray volumes for Vanilla Peppermint and Palo Santo. These are order-of-magnitude estimates — treat as a starting point for conversation, not a production commitment.

Diffuser:Spray ratio: 15% (CF historical range: 10–25%)

5%Conservative 10%Typical 20%35%

Diffuser retail price: $28 (DTC range: $24–$34)

$18$24$34$42

VP spray projection uses Y1 actuals (5,929) with −20% decay estimate. PS spray uses blended proxy estimate (78.8% × 3,000 assumed non-candle total). Both are working estimates — replace with engine outputs once Holiday configs are finalised. Revenue = units × retail price; no COGS or fees applied.

Data Quality — What This Tab Cannot Tell You

Question	Status	What's needed
How many diffuser units to order?	⚠ Estimate only	Fall 2026 actuals (weekly sell rate) to calibrate
How much fragrance oil to order?	❌ Cannot compute	Oz of oil per diffuser unit (confirm with vendor spec)
Will diffuser cannibalize spray/candle?	❌ Unknown	Fall 2026 cohort analysis (did diffuser buyers buy fewer sprays?)
When does diffuser demand peak?	⚠ CF proxy only	Fall 2026 weekly actuals
What's the right reorder trigger?	⚠ Dan's framing: commit small + reorder	Fall 2026 sell rate → reorder window calculation
Does diffuser format share vary by fragrance?	❌ Unknown	Actuals from multiple fragrances over 2+ seasons

Proxy Lab — Explore Format Share Options for Palo Santo

Palo Santo has never sold in Spray, Car Freshener, or Diffuser format. To estimate how demand will split across those formats in 2026, we use other fragrances as references ("proxies"). This lab lets you switch between proxy options, see how each one affects the format split, and compare them side-by-side — so you can judge which one makes the most sense.

How to use this lab: Select a proxy below. The format share donut and unit estimator update immediately. The demand curve chart shows how that proxy fragrance actually sold over the season — helping you judge whether its demand pattern is comparable to what you expect from Palo Santo.

Select a Proxy Option

★ Recommended

PF 2024 + VP 2025 Blended

Averages two references for a balanced estimate. Reduces single-proxy risk.

Nikita's original

Pine Forest 2024

Spray-dominant. Good CF estimate for the year before it collapsed.

Vanilla Peppermint 2025

Most balanced split. Only Holiday fragrance with spray + CF + candle.

Snowscape 2024

Higher candle and CF share. Use if PS expected to be candle-heavy.

Pine Forest 2025 ⚠

CF collapsed to 1.5% — shows why 2025 alone is an unreliable proxy.

Blended (recommended): Averages Pine Forest 2024 and Vanilla Peppermint 2025. Produces a middle-ground estimate that isn't skewed by Pine Forest's CF collapse in 2025 or VP's relatively higher candle weight. Most defensible approach with the available data.

Estimated Palo Santo Format Split

All Proxy Options — Format Shares Side by Side

Selected Proxy's Demand Curve Over the Season

How did this proxy fragrance actually sell across the Holiday season? A demand curve that matches what you expect for Palo Santo (e.g., steady mid-season rather than a single launch spike) is a better proxy than one that looks very different.

Demand Curve — Selected Proxy

Unit Estimator — Enter Palo Santo Non-Candle Total

Type in your projected non-candle unit total for Palo Santo 2026 (spray + CF, excluding candle which comes from observed history). The estimator applies the selected proxy's format shares and shows the estimated units per format.

Projected non-candle units: Candle units from observed PS history (~1,757) are added separately.

Engine limitation — what can actually be configured today.

The forecast engine's type: average format share override averages across active lineup fragrances only. For Holiday 2026, only VP contributes — Winter Hearth is Spray-only so it drops out of the average.

Net effect vs. this lab's blended recommendation:
• Car Freshener: engine gives ~17.2% (VP alone) vs. recommended blended 14.5%
• Spray: engine gives ~69.4% (VP alone) vs. blended 78.9%

Pine Forest cannot be referenced via the engine config — it is retired and not in the active lineup. A proposed engine enhancement has been added to the forecasting backlog. Until then, three options:
(A) type: average — directionally right, slight VP bias | (B) type: units with pre-computed counts | (C) Wait for engine enhancement

Raw Format Share Reference Table

Proxy Option	5oz Spray	Car Freshener	Candle share	Notes
★ Blended (PF2024 + VP2025)	78.8%	14.5%	—	Recommended. Balances the two most relevant references.
Pine Forest 2024 (Nikita's original)	88.2%	11.7%	—	Strong spray-dominance; reasonable CF before 2025 collapse.
Vanilla Peppermint 2025	69.4%	17.2%	13.4%	Most balanced; candle share may not apply to PS (different candle history).
Snowscape 2024	58.2%	23.5%	18.3%	High CF and candle. More conservative on spray.
Pine Forest 2025 ⚠	98.5%	1.5%	—	CF nearly eliminated. Not recommended as a single proxy.

Demand Curves — Daily Sales Over the Season

These charts show how daily demand moves across the season, with multiple years overlaid. A steeper early slope = strong launch. A Black Friday spike = promotional sensitivity. A flat line by January = season is over. Use the controls to explore any fragrance, switch views, or compare multiple fragrances at once.

Select fragrances to display

View:

· Solid = 2025 · Dashed = 2024

Daily Sales — 7-Day Rolling Average (all selected fragrances)

SKU Breakdown for Selected Fragrance

Select any fragrance above to drill into its individual formats. Pills below mirror your selection — click one to switch. Solid lines = 2025 · Dashed = 2024 · Each colour = one format.

By Format — 7-Day Rolling Average

By Format — Cumulative

Season totals by format — all checked fragrances

YoY Quick Reference

Fragrance	Format	Holiday 2024	Holiday 2025	Change	2026 implication
Holiday Hearth	Spray	3,978	1,157	▼ −70.9%	HH spray collapsed in Y2. Winter Hearth is Y1 only, supply-capped.
HH Total		5,276	1,668	▼ −68.4%
Snowscape	Spray	3,271	3,560	▲ +8.8%	Spray resilient. Demand continued well into January.
	Car Freshener	1,371	—	▼ −100%	Dropped from lineup in 2025.
Snowscape Total		5,800	4,891	▼ −15.7%
Palo Santo Pine	6.5oz Candle	1,490	969	▼ −35.0%	Offset by 8oz addition. Total grew +17.9%.
	8oz Candle	—	788	New 2025	Higher ASP. Grew revenue +49% despite candle unit mix shift.
Palo Santo Total		1,490	1,757	▲ +17.9%	Growing — engine may apply decay. Review before config locks.
Pine Forest	Car Freshener	609	86	▼ −85.9%	CF nearly disappeared. Explains proxy instability.

Action Items — What We Need to Finalize Holiday 2026 Configs

Timeline: With 1–3 month raw material lead times, Holiday purchasing needs to go in by approximately June–July. These items should be resolved as soon as possible.

1Winter Hearth — Oil on hand quantity and vendor

No Winter Hearth oil entry in the system — no vendor, no BOM, no quantity on hand recorded. The production ceiling is determined by available oil, not demand.

How much Winter Hearth oil is physically in the warehouse (in lbs)?
Has a vendor been established for future orders? (Holiday Hearth used Belle Aire at $75/lb, MOQ 35 lbs — that's the closest historical analog for sourcing.)

2Palo Santo — BOM for Spray, Car Freshener, 2oz Spray

BOM only covers candle formats. Without BOM entries for the non-candle formats, the unit forecast cannot be converted to a fragrance oil order in pounds.

Set up BOM entries for Palo Santo 5oz Spray, 2oz Spray, and Car Freshener — using Pine Forest as the structural reference.

3Diffuser — Confirm unit quantity per fragrance

No diffuser BOM exists anywhere in the system. Planning to use the same fixed-unit approach as Fall 2026 — confirm the number per fragrance for Holiday.

What diffuser unit quantity makes sense per fragrance for Holiday 2026? (Fall used 1,000 per fragrance as a starting point.)

4Fragrance oil fill rates — oz per unit by format

The BOM tracks packaging costs (bottles, labels) but not fragrance oil as a line item. To convert unit forecasts into pounds to order: lbs = (units × oz/unit) ÷ 16. We need the fill rate per format.

oz of fragrance oil per unit for: 5oz Spray · 2oz Spray · 8oz Candle · 6.5oz Candle · Car Freshener · Diffuser
One-time addition — once confirmed, applies to all future seasons.

5Inventory counts — confirm on-hand quantities for key oils

Several oils show costs in the system but no confirmed quantity on hand. Net-new order = forecast requirement − on hand.

Confirmed on-hand lbs for: Vanilla Peppermint oil (Givaudan, $105/lb, MOQ 55 lbs) · Winter Hearth oil (no vendor yet) · Palo Santo oil (candle continuity)

Once these five items are resolved: Dave will finalize the Holiday 2026 forecast config, run the engine, and produce SKU-level unit forecasts per fragrance × format × channel. That output feeds directly into Nikita's MOQ reconciliation and purchase order process.